The type of probability theory that dominates most of the sciences is called frequentism, but this version of probability is based on a mistaken idea about the nature of randomness. Another interpretation of probability, Bayesian probability, not only corresponds better with people’s intuitive concept of chance, but can also be interpreted as a logic that is consistent with the laws of probability. Continue reading
Category Archives: Rationality
Evidence and Beliefs
Evidence is the connection between our beliefs and the real world; it is how information flows and spreads through relationships of cause and effect. When information from the world reaches our senses and arrives in our brains, its patterns are analyzed. In this way our brains build up a representation of the patterns of the world. To borrow Alfred Korzybski’s famous map/territory metaphor, evidence is what connects the “map” in your head with the “territory” in the real world. Continue reading
Rationality
Research in several academic fields, especially in the last few decades, has given us a new perspective on our own minds. These are the fields at the confluence of science and philosophy: fields like experimental psychology, probability theory, decision theory, information theory and artificial intelligence. In these disciplines we have begun to examine human reasoning and knowledge itself, and to attempt to explain how they work. Here we have developed powerful tools for understanding our world. Rationality is about applying these tools to our thoughts and actions in order to systematically optimize our lives and our world. Continue reading